Financial independence (FIRE): your number and how far away it is

Financial independence is the point where your investments can cover your spending without a paycheck. See your FIRE number — and, given what you save and earn, how many years away it is.

$
$
$
%
%
years
Your FIRE number — what you need$1,000,000.00
Years to financial independence24years
Already there
7.3%
Year-by-year path 24 years
YearPortfolio% of FIRE number
1$72,500.007.3%
2$96,125.009.6%
3$120,931.2512.1%
4$146,977.8114.7%
5$174,326.7017.4%
6$203,043.0420.3%
7$233,195.1923.3%
8$264,854.9526.5%
9$298,097.7029.8%
10$333,002.5833.3%
11$369,652.7137%
12$408,135.3540.8%
13$448,542.1144.9%
14$490,969.2249.1%
15$535,517.6853.6%
16$582,293.5658.2%
17$631,408.2463.1%
18$682,978.6668.3%
19$737,127.5973.7%
20$793,983.9779.4%
21$853,683.1785.4%
22$916,367.3291.6%
23$982,185.6998.2%
24$1,051,294.97105.1%

Financial independence is the point where your investments can pay for your life without a salary. The FIRE movement — Financial Independence, Retire Early — turned it into a single target: a portfolio big enough that what it safely throws off each year covers what you spend. This tool finds that number for you, then shows how many years of saving stand between you and it.

How it works

Two ideas, stacked.

First, the number. A widely used rule says you can withdraw about 4% of a portfolio per year, adjusted for inflation, and have it last a long retirement. Turn that around and your target is your annual spending ÷ 4%, which is the same as 25× your yearly expenses. Spend $40,000 and your FIRE number is $1,000,000.

Second, the time. Starting from what you’ve already invested, the tool adds your yearly savings and grows the balance at your expected real return — the return after inflation — year by year, until it reaches the number. Everything is in today’s dollars, so the answer is in money you could actually spend.

An example

Take the values already filled in: $50,000 invested, $40,000 a year in expenses, $20,000 saved each year, a 5% real return, and a 4% withdrawal rate. Your FIRE number is $1,000,000, and at that pace you reach it in about 24 years. Add your age and the tool also tells you how old you’d be. Now nudge the inputs: trimming expenses cuts the target and frees up more to save, so it pulls the date in from both ends — which is why spending less is the most powerful lever in FIRE, more than chasing a higher return.

A note on that 5%: across the rest of this site the investment examples use about 7%, a typical nominal stock return. Here the return is real — after inflation — so ~7% nominal becomes roughly 5% real once you subtract about 2% inflation. Same world, just measured in today’s dollars to match your future expenses.

The part that matters

This is a planning sketch, not a guarantee. Three honest things:

Change the values above to your own — what you’ve saved, what you spend, what you can put away — and watch how the date moves. The surprise is usually how much pulling down expenses, not pushing up returns, brings independence closer.

Frequently asked questions

What is the FIRE number, and where does 25× come from?

Your FIRE number is the portfolio that can fund your spending indefinitely. It's your annual expenses divided by a safe withdrawal rate — at the common 4% rate, that's 25 times your yearly spending. Spend $40,000 a year and your number is $1,000,000. Lower the withdrawal rate and the number rises; raise it and it falls.

Why does this use a 'real' return instead of a normal one?

Because your future expenses will rise with inflation, the model works in today's dollars throughout. A real return is the return after inflation — so a roughly 7% nominal stock return becomes about 5% real once you subtract ~2% inflation. Using a real return keeps the FIRE number and the years-to-FI honest in money you can actually spend.

Is the 4% rule guaranteed?

No. It comes from U.S. historical data over 30-year retirements (Bengen's 1994 work and the Trinity Study), and even there a 4% rate wasn't a perfect 100% across every portfolio mix. It ignores taxes and fees, assumes a long horizon, and a bad run of returns early in retirement is its biggest risk. Treat it as a sturdy rule of thumb, not a promise — and lower the rate if you want a safer margin.